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So, let me get this straight. A company with zero product revenue, a history of promises,... So, let me get this straight. A company with zero product revenue, a history of promises, and a technology that’s perpetually “just around the corner” is now worth over $9 billion? And we’re all supposed to nod along like this is perfectly normal?
Give me a break.
QuantumScape (QS) is the talk of the town again, with its stock price rocketing 170% this year. The hype machine is churning at full blast, fueled by a perfect storm of press releases about a supposed QuantumScape’s High-Voltage Surge: Solid-State Battery Breakthrough Sends QS Stock Soaring (Oct 2025 Update), flashy demos, and just enough Wall Street jargon to make it sound legitimate. Everyone’s high-fiving, slapping each other on the back, and dreaming of the solid-state battery revolution.
But I’m looking at this whole circus and all I can think is: haven’t we seen this movie before? This is a story about hope and hype battling reality, and right now, hope and hype are winning by a knockout.
The Hype Machine is Working Overtime
You have to hand it to them, the narrative is compelling. On September 30th, QuantumScape announced a “strategic partnership” with Corning, the glass and ceramics giant. Analysts immediately called it a “major vote of confidence.”
Let me translate that for you. A “vote of confidence” is what you call it when a company that makes promises teams up with a company that makes actual things. It’s like a kid with a brilliant idea for a spaceship partnering with a welder. Does it mean the spaceship will fly? Hell no. It just means the welder is getting paid to help try. Offcourse, it helps QuantumScape look like they’re making progress on the hardest part of their entire plan: actually manufacturing this stuff at scale.
Then there was the big demo in Munich. They stuck one of their prototype batteries in a Ducati electric motorcycle. It apparently charged from 10% to 80% in 12 minutes. Wow. You can almost hear the gasps from the crowd. A motorcycle. That’s great. Call me when that same battery can power a Ford F-150 through a blizzard in North Dakota without catching fire or dying after 50 cycles. A flashy demo in a controlled environment is one thing; a reliable product that can be mass-produced for millions of cars is another universe entirely.
This whole thing feels like we're pricing a blueprint for a skyscraper as if the building is already finished and fully leased. We’re celebrating the idea of a breakthrough, not the breakthrough itself. How many times have we seen a promising tech company nail the lab tests only to completely fall apart when faced with the brutal, unforgiving realities of mass manufacturing? It's the chasm where countless startups go to die.
Wall Street vs. The Meme-Stock Mob
Here’s the part that really gets me. While retail investors and hype-chasers are bidding this stock up to the moon, the professional party-poopers on Wall Street are screaming from the sidelines, and nobody’s listening.
The average 12-month price target from analysts is around $5 to $6. The stock is currently trading around $16. That’s not a small disagreement; that’s a chasm. The pros are essentially saying the company is worth about a third of its current price. They see a company burning through over $100 million a quarter with no meaningful revenue expected for years. And they’re right.
This is a bad situation. No, “bad” doesn’t cover it—this is a complete detachment from financial gravity.
Look at their competitor, Solid Power. They’re also in the solid-state game. They’ve already started delivering prototype cells to BMW and Ford. They even recorded their first-ever revenue—a measly $6.5 million, but it’s real money. Yet their market cap is about one-twelfth of QuantumScape’s. Does that make any sense to you? One company has a tiny bit of revenue and hardware in real cars, the other has a Ducati demo and a partnership, yet it’s valued twelve times higher. It's pure madness.
It’s like the entire market has become a casino where the story is more important than the balance sheet. It reminds me of trying to argue with my cable company about my bill. The numbers are right there on the paper, showing I'm being overcharged, but they just keep repeating the same script about "promotional packages" and "value-added services." The facts don't matter. Only the narrative does.
QuantumScape is burning cash, has no product, and faces a brutal, expensive road to commercialization. Yet people are piling in, fueled by Tesla rumors and government lithium deals, as if success is a foregone conclusion. They are betting on a miracle, and the stock price reflects that…
Betting on a Lottery Ticket
Let's be brutally honest. QuantumScape is a science experiment. A fascinating, potentially world-changing science experiment, but an experiment nonetheless. Investing in it right now isn't investing; it's buying a very, very expensive lottery ticket. Maybe it hits. Maybe they solve the monumental engineering and manufacturing challenges ahead and we all get EVs that charge in 10 minutes. If they do, the people buying today will look like geniuses.
But the odds are long. The path from a lab prototype to a globally scaled, profitable product is littered with the corpses of brilliant ideas. For every one that makes it, a hundred fail. And with a $9 billion price tag, the market has priced this thing not just for success, but for total, world-dominating victory. There is absolutely no room for error.
I’m not touching it. The technology is cool as hell, but the valuation is pure fantasy.